Aberdeen Faces Pressure Ahead of Livingston Clash
A home game against Livingston in early September typically wouldn't evoke much anxiety or anticipation for Aberdeen fans.
However, as Jimmy Thelin's team prepares to resume league play, there is a palpable sense of urgency among supporters eager to see how the squad will respond after a dismal start to the season.
With three matches played, all ending in defeat and no goals scored, the beginning of the campaign has been disappointing, even considering the challenging fixtures against Heart of Midlothian and Celtic.
The situation is further exacerbated by the fact that Aberdeen has secured only five victories in their last 30 Scottish Premiership games since November 2024.
Recent signings, including Kevin Nisbet, Stuart Armstrong, and Bologna winger Jesper Karlsson on loan, have sparked some optimism following the loss to Falkirk. However, this also raises the stakes for the team to start delivering results.
Aberdeen's next five domestic fixtures include matchups against Livingston, Motherwell (in the League Cup), Dundee United, and Dundee, which already feel like must-win contests for Thelin, despite his reputation as a beloved Scottish Cup-winning manager.
Aberdeen Struggles with Offense and Defense
Thelin's inaugural season at Aberdeen began spectacularly, featuring 13 consecutive wins during a 16-match unbeaten streak, culminating in a Scottish Cup victory against Celtic. However, the intervening period has been significantly less successful, mirroring the team's struggles at the start of the current season.
The past ten months in league play have been marked by defensive lapses and a lack of offensive creativity. Since the beginning of the previous campaign, only Ross County and St Johnstone have scored fewer goals than Aberdeen in the Premiership, excluding Falkirk and Livingston, who have played fewer matches.
Consequently, Aberdeen ranks poorly in conversion rates and the number of significant scoring opportunities created. This inability to capitalize on chances is compounded by their low standings in expected goals and crosses, indicating a failure to adequately challenge opposing defenses.
Defensively, only Dundee and Kilmarnock have conceded more goals, a troubling statistic for a team that has won just five of their last 30 league games.
Identifying the Root Causes of Aberdeen's Struggles
Pinpointing a single issue is challenging, but the high turnover of players is a significant factor often overlooked. Under Thelin, 24 players have joined the club across three transfer windows, with many others departing.
In January, Aberdeen effectively revamped their defense, and they had to replace left-back Jack Mackenzie this summer as well. Last season's first-choice goalkeeper, Dimitar Mitov, missed significant time due to injury.
During their successful streak of 13 consecutive wins, Mitov consistently played behind the same defensive line. However, the lack of continuity in defense may not be the only reason for their struggles; there appears to be a deficiency in physicality and aggression at times.
According to Opta data, Aberdeen has lost more challenges than any other team in the Premiership since the start of last season. This may stem from players not reacting quickly enough or failing to position themselves correctly, which is concerning in a league where winning tackles and second balls is crucial.
The inconsistency may also hinder their attacking efforts. Among Aberdeen's forwards, only Topi Keskinen has started more than 22 of their last 41 league matches. Key players from last season, including Jamie McGrath, Pape Gueye, and Shayden Morris, have since departed the club.
Overall, only Celtic and Rangers have made more lineup changes than Aberdeen this season. The club has established a successful player trading model since chairman Dave Cormack took over in November 2019, focusing on acquiring young talent from lesser-known European leagues. However, this approach carries risks, and many of the new arrivals have yet to prove their worth.
Keskinen, for instance, signed for a substantial fee from HJK Helsinki, has had moments of promise but has only contributed two league assists and five goals in 39 appearances. Under a manager who prioritizes wingers in his system, this output is insufficient.
Former Aberdeen captain Willie Miller remarked on Sportsound after the Falkirk defeat, "Jimmy Thelin has a lot to consider. He has brought in many project players, and we have yet to see their impact. There are numerous new faces, and the squad is quite young, with many players aged 23 and under. They lack substantial experience, and all these players need to demonstrate that they are good enough for the club."
Can New Signings Revitalize Aberdeen?
The recent influx of signings at the end of the transfer window indicates that Aberdeen's management is acutely aware of the squad's lack of experience. Nisbet, Armstrong, and Karlsson are not merely squad additions but potential starters for the upcoming match against Livingston.
Nisbet, who returned permanently after a loan spell at Millwall last season, was Aberdeen's top scorer with 14 goals. Midfielder Armstrong has had a challenging time since leaving Southampton but brings Premier League and international experience, along with a history in Scottish football.
The acquisition of Karlsson is particularly noteworthy. Having previously been signed for approximately £10 million by Bologna, his struggles in Serie A and his connection with Thelin from their time at Elfsborg have made this move possible. Karlsson scored 46 goals and provided 33 assists in 129 appearances at AZ Alkmaar, and if Aberdeen can harness his talent, he could become one of the league's standout players.
If the new trio can make an immediate impact, it will alleviate some pressure on younger players who have been underperforming. Other recruits, such as striker Marko Lazetic and left-back Emmanuel Gyamfi, may also have a greater influence now that they have settled into the squad.
However, improvement must occur swiftly, as both players and the manager have much to prove. Thelin has received more backing than any previous Aberdeen manager during his three transfer windows, and while he will always be fondly remembered for the Scottish Cup triumph, the nature of football is unforgiving.
With a favorable run of fixtures ahead, it is now up to Thelin to demonstrate his ability to field a consistent side that delivers strong performances. The challenge of balancing Conference League commitments with domestic matches adds another layer of difficulty. This is why there is a mix of nerves and excitement surrounding Saturday's match against Livingston at Pittodrie.