Champions League Play-Off: Kairat Almaty vs Celtic
Champions League Play-Off: Kairat Almaty vs Celtic (Aggregate: 0-0)
Venue: Central Stadium, Almaty Date: Tuesday, 26 August Time: 17:45 BST
Coverage: Available on BBC Radio Scotland Extra & Sounds, with live text commentary on the BBC Sport website and app.
Can a season be won or lost in August? That seems unlikely.
However, it can certainly lay the groundwork for the challenges ahead, potentially leading to significant financial rewards or forcing clubs to seek additional funds for transfers.
Scottish clubs have been actively competing in European tournaments for over a month, aiming for a place in the league phases. Currently, four clubs remain in contention, with Celtic and Rangers on the verge of advancing to the Champions League.
Rangers are trailing 3-1 as they head to face Club Brugge in their second leg, while Celtic arrives in Kazakhstan for a crucial return match against Kairat Almaty following a goalless draw.
The stakes are high in this land of opportunity, where financial rewards and coefficient points are on the line. But how critical is it for these clubs to secure a spot in the Champions League this week?
Financial Implications
Let's begin with the financial aspect.
Among the three European club competitions, the Champions League offers the most substantial financial incentives. Qualification for the group stage alone can yield approximately €18 million (£15.5 million) for each club, not including ticket sales, merchandise, and various sponsorship deals.
In contrast, entering the Europa League would reduce that figure to just over €4 million (£4.5 million). A victory in the Europa League is worth €450,000 (£388,000), compared to €2 million (£1.73 million) in the Champions League.
While one might argue that Celtic and Rangers could earn more in the Europa League due to a higher likelihood of winning matches, the financial benefits of participating in the Champions League outweigh this consideration.
Football finance expert Kieran Maguire noted, "While a Scottish club might have a better chance of progressing in the Europa League, fans want to see their teams compete against Europe's elite. Both Celtic and Rangers fans believe they should regularly be in the Champions League, so missing out is a financial blow."
Maguire also highlighted the importance of solidarity payments from UEFA to other clubs in the division, which, although not vast, are always appreciated.
Coefficient Points Matter
Beyond financial gain, coefficient points are crucial.
These points determine a country's ranking and ultimately influence how many European spots are allocated. Scotland is currently at risk of losing its status, having already forfeited an automatic Champions League spot for the Scottish Premiership winner, and is struggling to break into the top 15 countries.
Gavin Noon from Scotland's Coefficient explained, "Scotland is currently trailing Austria by 2.8 coefficient points. To make up that gap, Scottish clubs would need to win seven league matches, which is no small feat."
However, earning bonus points for qualifying for the Champions League could eliminate this deficit. If both Rangers and Celtic win their second legs, they would add 1.4 points to Scotland's coefficient, effectively closing the gap.
Conversely, the argument that clubs would fare better in the Europa League due to a higher chance of winning is undermined by the significant benefits of simply qualifying for the Champions League.
Points are awarded based on where teams finish in their respective league phases, with even the lowest-ranked Champions League team earning more points than a first-place Europa League team.
Noon illustrated this by stating, "If a team reaches the Champions League and ends up with one draw and seven losses, that would contribute more to Scotland's coefficient than a Europa League team finishing first with three wins and a draw."
Consequences of Falling Out of the Top 15
If you're still with me, buckle up.
This season, Scotland began with five teams in European competitions. Celtic and Rangers entered Champions League qualifying, while Aberdeen and Hibs were in the Europa League, and Dundee United participated in the UEFA Conference League qualifying.
Should Scotland fall out of the top 15, the number of teams in Europe would drop from five to four for the 2026-27 season.
Noon explained, "This means teams like Dundee United, which performed admirably this season, would miss out on European competitions altogether. This would also affect clubs like St Mirren, which recently returned to Europe for the first time since the late 1980s."
There would also be significant implications for the league winners. Instead of entering the Champions League at the playoff stage, they would face three qualifying rounds with no guarantee of progressing to the league phase. The second-placed team would drop to Conference League qualifying, while the Scottish Cup winners would enter Europa League qualifying.