Liverpool vs Crystal Palace: Community Shield Insights
Premier League champions Liverpool are set to face FA Cup winners Crystal Palace in the Community Shield on Sunday at Wembley. But does a victory in this season opener suggest a successful season ahead?
Historically, only one of the last 14 winners of the Community Shield has gone on to claim the Premier League title at the end of the season.
What does this mean for the goalscorers in the match? BBC Sport analyzes recent trends in the Community and Charity Shields to draw conclusions.
Do Community Shield Winners Usually Win the Premier League?
The answer is surprisingly no. In the Premier League era, only eight out of 33 winners of the Charity or Community Shield have gone on to win the league title. Notably, five of these occurrences took place during a six-year span from 2005 to 2010. The last team to achieve this was Manchester City in 2019, with Sir Alex Ferguson's Manchester United last doing so in 2011.
Interestingly, since 1992, teams that lose the Community Shield have won more league titles that same season—10 in total, including Manchester City, who achieved this three years in a row from 2021 to 2023. Last year, City secured the Community Shield against their rivals Manchester United but went on to have their worst season since 2016-17.
In 45% of cases (15 out of 33), the Premier League champions did not participate in the Community Shield. Conversely, 55% of the time (18 out of 33), the Shield winners have finished above the losers in the league standings. On 10 occasions, both teams have ended up as the top two in the Premier League, with four instances where the Shield winners finished first and the losers second.
Do Premier League Winners Usually Win the Community Shield?
Another pertinent question is how often the previous season's Premier League champions win the Community Shield. The answer is that they have won 18 out of 33 times, equating to 55%. However, Crystal Palace may find hope in the fact that FA Cup winners have claimed seven of the past 11 Shields, a significant increase from just five victories in the prior 22 editions.
In the Premier League era, there have been three occasions when neither the league nor cup winners triumphed in the Community Shield. Arsenal (1999 and 2023) and Manchester United (2010) qualified as Premier League runners-up and defeated the Double winners in those matches.
Do Community Shield Goalscorers Go on to Have Good Seasons?
The outcomes for goalscorers in the Community Shield vary. In 2023, Cole Palmer scored for Manchester City against Arsenal, a match they ultimately lost on penalties after Leandro Trossard's late equalizer. Palmer later went on to score 22 Premier League goals and was named young player of the season, albeit for Chelsea, after his transfer for £42.5 million.
The previous season, Darwin Nunez scored on his Liverpool debut, while Erling Haaland did not score in his first match for City, leading to discussions about Nunez's potential. However, Haaland finished the season with an impressive 52 goals, while Nunez netted only 15.
Kelechi Iheanacho scored just four Premier League goals following his winning strike in the 2021 Community Shield. In contrast, Raheem Sterling's goal in the 2019 Shield for City against Liverpool marked the beginning of his most productive season, where he scored 31 goals.