Manchester United's Underperformance: A Statistical Analysis
Despite only securing two Premier League victories since early April, statistical analysis suggests that Manchester United may be improving under the management of Ruben Amorim.
While only Tottenham has garnered fewer points in their last ten matches, United's underlying statistics indicate that their performances warrant better results. It appears that the players have underperformed more than Amorim and his criticized tactics.
Excluding penalties, which can skew results, highlights United's ability to create and limit opportunities without relying on opponents' mistakes, as seen in their winning goal against Burnley.
In fact, United has recorded the highest number of shots in the Premier League over the last ten games, while only Manchester City—United's opponents this Sunday—has faced fewer shots among the 17 teams consistently present during this period.
The primary issue has been their scoring efficiency and goalkeeping. United's players have converted seven goals fewer than expected based on their chances, while conceding four more than the historical average.
It is important to note that these ten matches include 65 minutes against a ten-man Bournemouth and Aston Villa. However, dominating a game against a reduced squad is not always guaranteed, as demonstrated by Liverpool's recent performance against Newcastle.
Only six teams have been more dominant than United in their last ten Premier League encounters. If they had been as efficient as their competitors, United would have nearly doubled their current total of eight points.
The reasons behind this significant underperformance in both offensive and defensive situations remain unclear. It could be attributed to a lack of quality among the players—suggesting that a complete overhaul of the front line and goalkeeper might be necessary this summer—or it could stem from a lack of confidence or sheer bad luck.
One factor that may hinder the players' efficiency under Amorim is the type of shots they have taken. Since his appointment, United has registered both the lowest-quality shots in attack and allowed the highest-quality shots defensively.
Nevertheless, expected goal metrics already account for these challenges, indicating that United's players should be performing better. The combination of creating low-quality chances and struggling to convert them is concerning.
Looking at their overall performance in 30 Premier League matches under Amorim, there has been a steady improvement since early March. The team has been generating more and better chances than their opponents, despite current results suggesting otherwise.
Why does it matter that United has recently dominated games and has been 'expected' to score more? Ultimately, football is straightforward: teams that create numerous quality chances while conceding few bad ones tend to achieve long-term success.
While being clinical in both attack and defense is crucial, even the most fortunate or unfortunate teams cannot consistently defy their expected goal metrics. Although Ruben Amorim has not yet met the expectations many United fans had when he took over in December, there are recent indications of improvement under his leadership.