Premier League Kicks Off: A Look at Early Season Dynamics
The Premier League begins on Friday, with every team eager to secure early victories.
The defending champions, Liverpool, will kick off the season at home against Bournemouth, while the other teams will join the action over the next three days.
How crucial is a strong start in the initial matches? Are there teams facing particularly tough or favorable schedules?
BBC Sport examines these questions.
The Importance of a Quick Start
Last season, the top eight teams in the Premier League after five matches ultimately finished in the top eight, although not necessarily in the same order.
If this pattern holds true this season, it could mean that 12 teams might be ruled out of European qualification through league standings with 33 matches remaining.
Additionally, 12 teams finished within two positions of their standings after five games, while 18 teams were within four positions. Only Everton (who moved from 20th to 13th) and Tottenham (10th to 17th) experienced more significant changes.
Do Champions Start Strong?
Historically, only 36% of teams leading at the end of September have gone on to win the title, as was the case for Liverpool last season.
How much does a strong start influence the eventual league champion? The record for the most points after 10 games is 28 (achieved through nine wins and a draw). All four teams that reached this milestone—Manchester City (2011-12 and 2017-18), Chelsea (2005-06), and Liverpool (2019-20)—went on to claim the title.
However, two teams with the next best starts, earning 27 points, namely Newcastle (1995-96) and Arsenal (2022-23), failed to secure the championship due to notable collapses.
Newcastle was at the top of the table after 10 games for three consecutive seasons but did not win the title in any of those years.
There are numerous instances of teams accumulating 26 points in their first 10 matches without winning the title, including Tottenham, who had an impressive start under Ange Postecoglou in the 2023-24 season but ultimately finished fifth.
Conversely, seven teams have won the title despite not reaching 20 points after 10 games. For instance, Manchester City rebounded to claim the title by a clear 12 points in the 2020-21 season, having been sixth with 18 points after 10 matches. This marked the beginning of City’s four consecutive titles, during which they were never at the top after 10 games.
Challenges for Promoted Teams
For the newly promoted teams—Leeds, Burnley, and Sunderland—the primary concern is avoiding relegation.
This is especially pressing after two consecutive seasons where all promoted teams were relegated immediately.
For these teams, achieving 11 points in their first 10 games appears to be a critical threshold, as no promoted team in the past decade has been relegated from that position. Historically, only 14% of teams starting below that have faced relegation.
However, the survival rate drops dramatically to 25% for teams that secure just 10 points from their opening 10 matches. Leicester, for instance, finished with 10 points last season and were relegated, while Wolves, who were at the bottom with three points, managed to stay up.
Assessing the Toughest Starts
Which team is poised for a strong beginning?
According to statisticians at Opta, Manchester United and Arsenal face the most challenging starts, as they meet on the opening day. United's subsequent matches include games against Manchester City and Chelsea, while Arsenal will take on Liverpool and City.
This is likely not ideal for United's manager, Ruben Amorim, who is under pressure to secure a solid start following last season's 15th-place finish.
Aston Villa is predicted to have the easiest start, followed by Crystal Palace and West Ham. Despite facing Tottenham, Manchester United, and Liverpool in their first five matches, Burnley is rated to have the fourth-best start due to an early relegation battle at home against fellow promoted side Sunderland.