Scotland's World Cup Qualification Scenario Amid Denmark vs. Greece Match
Following Scotland's World Cup qualifying victory over Belarus, the focus shifts to Copenhagen, where Denmark will host Greece.
A win for Denmark would secure Scotland a playoff spot with two games remaining. Any other outcome would leave Scotland at the top of their group.
What do the Scots ideally want from this match between their group rivals?
What if Denmark Defeats Greece?
If Denmark wins, both Scotland and Denmark would be on 10 points, guaranteeing them at least a playoff position. Denmark would maintain the lead on goal difference, which is the primary tiebreaker if teams are level on points.
For the playoffs, the 12 runners-up, along with the four best Nations League group winners who do not finish in the top two of their sections, will be drawn into four sets. Each set will consist of a one-legged semi-final, with the seeded team playing at home, followed by a final. Essentially, two matches will determine which four teams qualify for the World Cup.
However, Scotland hopes to secure their place without the complications of playoffs. It is reasonable to expect Denmark to defeat Belarus at home in November, bringing them to 13 points. If Scotland also wins against an already-eliminated Greece in Athens, they would match Denmark's tally, setting up a decisive match at Hampden.
A draw in that encounter on November 18 would likely favor Denmark due to their superior goal difference. If Scotland draws in Athens, a victory over Denmark would still secure them the group win. Conversely, a loss in Greece would necessitate a significant win in the final match to keep their hopes of automatic qualification alive.
What If They Draw?
If Denmark and Greece draw, Denmark would have eight points and Greece four, leaving Scotland two points clear. Assuming Denmark beats Belarus on matchday five to reach 11 points, if Scotland avoids defeat in Athens, they would secure at least a playoff spot, eliminating Greece from contention.
The top position would then hinge on the match at Hampden against Denmark. The winner would qualify, while a draw would favor the team with the better goal difference or more goals scored, should they remain equal.
If the teams are still tied, the tiebreakers would include away goals scored in matches between the two, a neutral venue playoff if scheduling allows, fair play points, and finally, drawing lots.
It is unlikely that such scenarios will unfold.
If Scotland loses in Athens, the situation could become tense. Greece would trail by three points with a remaining match against Belarus. A win against Denmark would still secure Scotland the group victory, while a draw would confirm a playoff spot. However, a defeat, coupled with a Greek win, would bring goal difference back into play to determine whether Scotland or Greece finishes second.
Would a Greek Victory Be Beneficial?
The answer depends on one's perspective.
If Greece wins, they would move to six points, one behind Denmark, while Scotland would remain three points clear at the top. Assuming Denmark defeats Belarus, a win for Scotland in Athens would eliminate Greece and leave Scotland needing only a draw against Denmark to secure the top position. A loss at Hampden would place both teams at 13 points, reigniting the tiebreaker scenario.
A draw in Greece would elevate Scotland to 11 points, one above Denmark and four above Greece, ensuring safety for the top two teams, with a draw sufficient to win the group.
However, if Scotland loses in Athens, the situation complicates further. They would remain on 10 points alongside Denmark, while Greece would rise to nine. A victory against Denmark would guarantee automatic qualification, but a draw would allow Greece to win the group, leaving Scotland and Denmark to battle for goal difference to determine who finishes second.
A defeat would leave Scotland in third place, pondering where it all went wrong once again. Is that clear?