Arsenal's Striker Addition: Addressing Scoring Challenges
Last season, Arsenal's need for a prolific striker was evident, and they believe they have addressed this with the signing of Viktor Gyokeres. While Arsenal conceded fewer goals than Liverpool in the 2024-25 season, Liverpool scored 17 more goals, a crucial factor in the Premier League title race. Gyokeres has been brought in to tackle this issue, although the solution might be more complex.
Analyzing Arsenal's 69 goals compared to the champions' 86, it becomes clear that the issue was not converting chances but creating them.
Arsenal's Penalty Disadvantage
Liverpool boasted a better shot conversion rate (13.3%) than Arsenal (12.6%) last season, but this statistic is misleading due to penalties. Liverpool scored a league-high nine penalties, while Arsenal managed only two. Given that penalties were converted at 83% and non-penalty shots at 11% in the Premier League, winning penalties significantly skewed shot conversion rates.
Excluding penalties, Arsenal were slightly better finishers than Liverpool. Although Liverpool's nine penalties were substantial, 14 teams have received more in a season over the past decade. For a team like Arsenal, finishing high in the table with just two penalties is unusual. In the last 10 seasons, teams with a points tally in the 70s have averaged five penalties, while champions averaged eight. The last team to achieve so many points with so few penalties was Arsenal in the 2015-16 season.
Those additional seven penalties significantly impacted the title race, as Liverpool's spot-kicks earned them 11 extra points. Arsenal's two penalties, both in a 5-2 win at West Ham, contributed no additional points.
Arsenal's Shot Creation Issues
A major reason for Arsenal's lower goal tally compared to Liverpool was their lack of chance creation. Over 38 games, Liverpool took 95 more non-penalty shots than Arsenal, averaging 2.5 more per game. If Arsenal had taken as many shots as Liverpool, maintaining their scoring rate, they would have scored 12 more goals. This highlights Arsenal's main issue: you cannot score without creating chances.
Quality of Shots Taken
Not only did Liverpool create more shots, but they also created better-quality chances. Only Brentford surpassed Liverpool in terms of expected goals per shot (excluding penalties). Liverpool's chances were historically converted at 12%, compared to Arsenal's 11%. Although a 1% difference seems minor, it equates to five additional goals for Arsenal over 544 non-penalty shots.
Arsenal's Ruthlessness in Finishing
While Arsenal scored 17 fewer goals than Liverpool, they actually overperformed their non-penalty expected goals (xG) by seven goals, compared to Liverpool's 0.5. Despite the narrative, only Nottingham Forest and Wolves were more clinical than Arsenal. Liverpool's creation of more and better chances meant they didn't need to be as clinical to win the league.
In summary, Arsenal's goal deficit was due to fewer penalties, fewer shots, and lower-quality chances.
Positive Outlook: Gyokeres' Impact
Gyokeres is expected to enhance not only Arsenal's finishing but also their chance creation. In the Primeira Liga, he averaged 4.5 shots per 90 minutes, surpassing Gabriel Jesus (3.0) and Kai Havertz (2.6) at Arsenal. His movement and anticipation create opportunities for teammates, and he ranked second in open-play chance creation and led in penalties won. Gyokeres is poised to play a crucial role in Arsenal's Premier League title challenge this season.