Challenges Facing Newly-Promoted Teams in the Premier League
A concerning trend is emerging in the Premier League.
For the last two seasons, all three teams promoted from the Championship have been relegated back to the lower division. Will Burnley, Leeds, and Sunderland, the latest newcomers, manage to defy this trend?
BBC Sport examines the statistics surrounding relegation and evaluates the prospects of each of the newly-promoted teams.
Performance of Recent Newly-Promoted Teams
In terms of points, the performance has been disappointing.
Since the 1996-97 season, when three promoted clubs began competing in a 38-match Premier League format, the average points accumulated by these teams has been 113. However, in the 2023-24 season, Burnley, Luton, and Sheffield United set a record low with a mere 66 points combined. Last season, the promoted teams Ipswich, Leicester, and Southampton fared even worse, amassing only 59 points.
In previous years, it was common to expect at least one of the newly-promoted teams to avoid relegation. Before the last two seasons, the only time all three promoted clubs were relegated was in 1997-98, when Bolton, Barnsley, and Crystal Palace faced the drop. Bolton, however, managed to secure 40 points and was relegated only on goal difference.
In contrast, there have been four instances where all three promoted teams survived in the Premier League, the most recent being just three years ago when Fulham, Bournemouth, and Nottingham Forest all managed to stay up.
Points Required for Premier League Survival
Fans have long debated the minimum number of points necessary to avoid relegation. So, what should Burnley, Leeds, Sunderland, and other newly-promoted teams be targeting?
Traditionally, 40 points is considered the benchmark for survival, as only three teams have ever reached that total in a 38-game season and still been relegated: West Ham with 42 points in 2002-03, Sunderland with 40 points in 1996-97, and Bolton with 40 points the following year.
However, given that those instances occurred over two decades ago, some argue that a lower target may be more realistic. In the past ten seasons, the average points total for the team finishing in 18th place—indicating the threshold for staying up—has been precisely 32. Last season, Tottenham finished 17th with 38 points but could have avoided relegation with a mere 26 points, highlighting the declining competitiveness of promoted teams.
Does Championship Success Predict Premier League Survival?
Leeds and Burnley are two of the strongest teams ever promoted to the Premier League, and historically, such dominance in the Championship would suggest a high likelihood of survival. However, recent trends indicate that success in the Championship does not guarantee safety in the Premier League.
Only five clubs have been relegated after being promoted with 95 points or more, and four of these cases have occurred in the last four years. Sunderland, having finished fourth with 76 points last season, gained promotion through the play-offs, but seven of the last eleven teams promoted via this route have been relegated in their following season, with Brentford being the only exception to surpass 40 points (46) in their first season back.
The Importance of a Strong Start
The initial performance of newly-promoted teams is a crucial indicator of their chances for survival. Over the past decade, every promoted team that has secured 11 points or more after ten matches has managed to stay up, while those with fewer points have almost certainly faced relegation.
It will be interesting to revisit this analysis on November 1, by which time all three promoted teams should have completed ten matches, although fixture schedules may vary.
Notably, the two teams that survived despite poor starts were Bournemouth in 2015-16 (eight points after ten games) and Nottingham Forest in 2022-23 (five points after ten games).
Financial Disparities in the Premier League
Why are newly-promoted clubs struggling to compete in the Premier League? Football finance expert Kieran Maguire attributes this challenge to financial constraints.
“The clubs coming up do have a disadvantage,” he explained to BBC Sport. “Under the current Profit and Sustainability Rules, clubs that have been in the Premier League for three consecutive seasons can incur losses of up to £105 million over a three-year cycle. However, newly-promoted clubs can only lose up to £61 million over the same period, translating to £13 million per season in the Championship and £35 million per season in the Premier League.”
This £44 million budget gap has created a new middle tier in the Premier League, consisting of clubs that are neither strong enough to compete for European qualification nor likely to be relegated. “Those clubs are unlikely to support any changes to financial regulations that could increase their risk of relegation,” he added.
Leeds' Strategy for Survival
Jonathan Buchan, BBC Radio Leeds Sports Editor
Leeds United has developed its own strategy for avoiding relegation, focusing on physicality. The club believes that height, strength, and the ability to win aerial duels are critical factors for survival in the Premier League.
Their first seven signings of the summer average 6 feet 2 inches in height, reflecting this philosophy. For Leeds to have any chance of survival, these new players will need to perform well from the outset, and their early recruitment efforts are expected to aid this goal. However, they also rely on other promoted teams to falter and established Premier League clubs to struggle.
While data may provide confidence in avoiding relegation, the reality of football is that results are determined on the pitch, not solely by statistics.
Burnley's Preparedness for the Premier League
Scott Read, BBC Radio Lancashire
Burnley is approaching this Premier League season with a renewed sense of preparation. The last time they entered the Premier League, they had just won the Championship and were the strongest team in the second tier. They spent approximately £100 million during the summer transfer window, yet still faced challenges.