Fantasy Premier League Insights: Strategies for Success Post-International Break
Fantasy Premier League (FPL) resumes this week following the third international break of the season.
As we approach a busy schedule leading up to March, including a hectic festive period, it’s an opportune moment to reflect on the season thus far, with nearly a third of the matches completed.
What insights have we gained? What strategies should we adopt this season? How can you gain an advantage over your mini-league competitors in the upcoming weeks?
Our panel of experts—Pras, FPL Heisenberg, Gianni Buttice, and Holly Shand—offer eight key insights to consider.
When to Use Your First Triple Captain Chip
Your first Triple Captain Chip must be utilized by Gameweek 19. Therefore, let’s identify the optimal Gameweek for its use.
In my view, Manchester City’s Erling Haaland is the standout choice for the Triple Captaincy. He has consistently outperformed other players this season and shows no signs of slowing down.
While I have already used my chip on Haaland for his impressive 16-point performance against Burnley, if I still had it, I would deploy it in Gameweek 13 when he faces a struggling Leeds team. This matchup appears to be the most favorable opportunity until Gameweek 19.
Although he can perform well in other fixtures, it makes strategic sense to maximize the chip in a home game against weaker opposition. FPL Heisenberg
Don’t Overlook Liverpool’s Fixture Swing
Despite suffering five losses in their last six Premier League matches, Liverpool is increasingly attracting attention.
Their performances have shown improvement, highlighted by victories over Aston Villa and Real Madrid.
They have an advantageous run of fixtures, playing at home against Nottingham Forest, Leeds, Wolves, and Sunderland, with away matches against West Ham and Leeds. No other team has a more favorable schedule until the end of December.
The key question remains: who should we select from their squad?
Mohamed Salah has shown signs of improvement, but without the captaincy, his price tag of £14.2 million may not justify his selection. Strikers Alexander Isak and Hugo Ekitike may share minutes when fit, as will left-sided forwards Cody Gakpo and Florian Wirtz.
My recommended options include:
Dominik Szoboszlai (£6.6m) : He has secured consistent minutes and has taken over most set-piece duties, although I have concerns about his open-play threat, as he has not recorded a shot in the box in the last four gameweeks.
Virgil van Dijk (£5.9m) : He stands out in the defense due to his guaranteed playing time, set-piece threat, and potential for defensive contribution points. Ibrahima Konate (£5.4m) is a solid alternative at a lower price. Pras
When to Play Your First Wildcard
This is a dilemma many fantasy managers face! Gameweek 12 has long been viewed as a pivotal moment, especially with fixture changes for Liverpool, Manchester City, and Manchester United.
A bold strategy would be to play the wildcard while in a position of strength, allowing for the inclusion of both Haaland and Salah in the same lineup. The wildcard can be activated anytime up to the Gameweek 19 deadline.
Keep in mind that all managers will receive up to five free transfers before Gameweek 16, coinciding with the Africa Cup of Nations, so it’s wise to utilize any free transfers leading up to that point. This is the optimal approach.
If your team doesn’t necessitate a wildcard for Gameweek 12, consider saving it for the busy December schedule. Holly
Are the Days of Picking a Man City Midfielder Over?
With Haaland being a staple in most teams, many fantasy managers seek to capitalize on Manchester City's attacking prowess by adding a second attacker, but rotation remains a significant concern.
Given City’s packed schedule, the notorious 'Pep Roulette' is already in full effect, making it challenging to predict which four players will start behind Haaland.
Currently, Jeremy Doku and Phil Foden appear to be the safest options, but with only two spots available among six contenders, players like Bernardo Silva, Omar Marmoush, Rayan Cherki, Oscar Bobb, Savinho, and early-season favorite Tijjani Reijnders should be avoided.
At £8 million, Foden is a costly option, while the more affordable Doku at £6.4 million may gain popularity following his impressive performance against Liverpool.
However, caution is advised as even these two may miss games in December. Gianni
Don’t Get Too Focused on Defensive Contribution Points
In past seasons, it was straightforward: we selected defenders who posed an attacking threat and played for solid defensive teams.
This season, with the introduction of defensive contribution points (defcon), there are additional factors to consider, making center-backs more viable options.
While previous seasons favored attacking full-backs, such as Trent Alexander-Arnold at Liverpool, we can now look at center-backs like Marcos Senesi, Joachim Andersen, James Tarkowski, and Nordi Mukiele, who consistently accumulate defcon points. Notably, the top 17 defenders for defcon this season are all center-backs, with Crystal Palace's Tyrick Mitchell being the highest-ranked full-back in 18th place.
Nonetheless, we cannot disregard attacking full-backs like Jurrien Timber, Riccardo Calafiori, and Daniel Munoz, who are performing well overall, primarily due to clean sheets and attacking returns rather than defcon points.
Thus, while defcon points are significant this season, they are not the sole or most critical means of scoring points for defenders.
I would prefer an Arsenal defender like Timber, who has no defcon points this season, over Tarkowski or Andersen. Similarly, I would choose Munoz for his open-play threat over teammate Chris Richards, who performs better in terms of defcon. FPL Heisenberg
Four at the Back is Now the Optimal Formation
The rule changes this season, which reward defenders with defcon for various defensive actions, have made defenders' scores less dependent solely on clean sheets, which can be unpredictable.
So far, only Haaland, Antoine Semenyo, and Declan Rice have surpassed 60 points among midfielders and forwards. In contrast, four defenders have already reached this milestone.
Additionally, ten defenders have achieved over 50 points, averaging more than 4.5 points per match. Considering that many of these defenders are priced between £4.5 and £6 million, this represents tremendous value.
As a result, I am strongly considering a transition to a primarily four-at-the-back formation. With four to five viable starting defenders, I can rotate them based on weekly fixture difficulty, maximizing clean sheet potential while maintaining coverage for tough match-ups.
While this strategy may mean missing out on some budget-friendly options in midfield or attack, such as Thiago (Brentford), Lucas Paqueta (West Ham), Elliot Anderson (Forest), or Yankuba Minteh (Brighton), I believe that investing in a £6 million defender or two £5 million defenders in a rotation could match, if not exceed, the output from attackers this season.