Liverpool and Celtic Poised for League Titles, CIES Predicts
Liverpool is poised to be crowned Premier League champions this season, according to a research group.
Under the leadership of Arne Slot, Liverpool secured the 2024-25 title in his inaugural season, finishing 10 points ahead of second-placed Arsenal.
The CIES (International Centre for Sports Studies) Football Observatory has indicated that Liverpool has the highest probability of lifting the trophy again, with a 28.9% chance.
Arsenal is given an 18.8% chance of winning the title, while Chelsea ranks third with a 16.2% probability, surpassing 10-time champions Manchester City, which has a 14.4% chance.
Manchester United, the most successful team in Premier League history, is assigned a mere 2.6% chance of winning their first title since the 2013-14 season.
Celtic, meanwhile, has a 63.3% likelihood of winning the Scottish Premiership again, with rivals Rangers at 28.9%, despite their worst league start since 1983.
In Spain’s La Liga, Real Madrid is favored to reclaim the trophy with a 40.6% probability, while Barcelona has a 29.6% chance of defending their title.
Bayern Munich stands out as the favorites in the Bundesliga, with a 61.4% likelihood of winning, ahead of Borussia Dortmund at 8.8%.
In Serie A, the leading contenders are Inter Milan (25.6%), Juventus (18.2%), and Napoli (17.4%).
Paris St-Germain is projected to have a 73.0% chance of winning a fifth consecutive Ligue 1 title in France.
The CIES Football Observatory has developed a statistical model to predict title winners across 29 leagues, incorporating sporting, economic, and demographic variables, including factors such as passes into the final third and transfer fees.
Among the 29 leagues analyzed, Crvena Zvezda in Serbia boasts the highest likelihood of winning their title, with a 76.2% chance.