Assessing the Impact of Major Premier League Transfers
Two months ago, Liverpool's significant summer transfer spending seemed to have set them on a path to secure the Premier League title.
Arne Slot's team was five points clear at the top of the table after just five matches, bolstered by an investment of £415 million in new talent.
Florian Wirtz was brought in from Bayer Leverkusen for an initial £100 million, potentially rising to £116 million. Newcastle United striker Alexander Isak joined on deadline day for a record transfer fee of £125 million, which could increase to £130 million with add-ons.
However, things have not gone as planned. Both players have struggled to find form, contributing to Liverpool's drop to 12th place in the league.
Wirtz has yet to register a goal or an assist in 11 Premier League appearances, while Isak has also failed to score, with only one assist to his name.
It's still early in the season to dismiss the potential of two of the most expensive signings in Premier League history.
For instance, Thierry Henry scored only two goals in his first 17 appearances for Arsenal but finished that season with 17 goals in the Premier League and 26 across all competitions, ultimately becoming one of the league's greatest players.
However, a review of the Premier League's top signings reveals that few have achieved significant success.
In this analysis, I will evaluate each deal based on the players' individual performances and their contributions to their clubs. The fees mentioned exclude any add-ons.
Of course, this assessment is subjective, and I welcome differing opinions in the comments below!
Enzo Fernandez (£106.8 million) and Moises Caicedo (£100 million) to Chelsea
These two Chelsea players are discussed together as they were signed in 2023, seven months apart, and their success is closely linked.
Fernandez joined first from Benfica during the winter transfer window, fresh from winning the World Cup with Argentina and earning the FIFA Young Player award.
Caicedo followed in the summer from Brighton, just as he seemed set to join Liverpool.
Two years into their tenure, they have secured the Conference League and the Club World Cup. However, after finishing sixth in the 2023-24 season and fourth the previous year, can we truly say Chelsea has excelled?
Both players are undoubtedly valuable assets, consistently featuring in the starting lineup, with Caicedo playing all 38 Premier League matches last season.
There is ample opportunity for the duo to win major honors with Chelsea (including the Club World Cup), and they are currently among the closest challengers to Arsenal for the title this season.
Verdict: Promising. Chelsea has invested heavily in their squad in recent years, but they need to secure more silverware, along with a title challenge, to validate this spending.
Jack Grealish (£100 million) to Manchester City
Can we really question a player who has won three Premier League titles, the Champions League, the FA Cup, the UEFA Super Cup, and the Club World Cup?
Grealish started in all of City’s cup victories in 2023, yet he has struggled to replicate the consistent form he displayed at Aston Villa.
During the 2021-22 season, he recorded six goals and four assists for City, while in 2022-23, he scored five goals and provided 11 assists. In contrast, his final two seasons at Villa saw him net 17 goals and set up 20.
In the summer of 2023, City acquired Jeremy Doku from Rennes, signaling Pep Guardiola's dissatisfaction with Grealish's contributions.
In the following two seasons, Grealish made only 20 Premier League appearances each year, managing a total of four goals and two assists. Eventually, he was loaned out to Everton for the current season.
Verdict: This is contentious, but can a player who cost £100 million and was effectively sidelined after two seasons be deemed a success? It would be unfair to label Grealish a failure given his numerous titles at City. However, he has not progressed from his impressive form at Villa, suggesting a middle ground in this evaluation.
Declan Rice (£100 million) to Arsenal
If Grealish has the accolades but lacks acclaim, the opposite can be said for Rice.
Rice was a solid midfielder at West Ham, but he has now established himself as world-class, also gaining recognition as a set-piece specialist.
The 26-year-old is a guaranteed starter for England in the upcoming World Cup, and Arsenal appears significantly less effective in his absence.
However, in the context of this discussion, the only trophy Rice has won at Arsenal is the Community Shield in his first match.
Verdict: To be determined. The signing of quality players like Rice has transformed Arsenal into genuine title contenders. Yet, until Arsenal secures silverware, the financial investment will not be fully justified. With the Gunners currently six points clear at the top of the table, this season may change that narrative.
Romelu Lukaku (£97.5 million) to Chelsea
This is the first of two entries for Lukaku, marking his anticipated return as Chelsea's main striker (he was previously with the club from 2011 to 2014).
Chelsea signed Lukaku in 2021 from Inter Milan, where he had an impressive record of 64 goals in 95 appearances, winning the Scudetto and being named Serie A Footballer of the Year.
Surely, Lukaku would thrive? He scored four goals in his first four matches, but his impact quickly diminished, and after the new year, he managed only three Premier League goals in a total of 15 goals across 44 matches.
After just one season, he departed once more.
Verdict: Failure. Lukaku won the Club World Cup in February 2022, but this is a meager return for such a substantial investment. He returned to Inter on loan after one season and eventually left Chelsea permanently in 2024 to join Napoli for just £30 million, where he would again win the Italian title.
Paul Pogba (£89 million) to Manchester United
This transfer is widely regarded as one of the worst in football history.
Pogba had left Manchester United for Juventus as a free agent in 2012, and four years later, the club spent £89 million to bring him back to Old Trafford.
Although he spent six years at United during his second spell, he was expected to rejuvenate the team, which he failed to do consistently.
His return of 39 goals in 226 matches isn't poor, but he only truly met expectations in the 2018-19 season, where he scored 13 goals in the Premier League and was named in the PFA Team of the Year.
Verdict: Failure. United won only the Europa League and the EFL Cup during his second spell, with only fleeting glimpses of his quality. He returned to Juventus on a free transfer at the end of his contract in 2022.
Antony (£82 million) to Manchester United
Signed by Erik ten Hag from Ajax in 2022 as part of a squad rebuild, Antony was expected to provide pace and creativity to the attack.
The Brazilian had scored 24 goals and provided 22 assists during two seasons at the Dutch club. However, at Old Trafford, he appeared to lack confidence.
Antony has managed only five Premier League goals and three assists in two and a half seasons before he was sidelined.
As the season progresses, it remains to be seen how these high-profile transfers will ultimately be judged.