Celtic's Disappointing Champions League Exit
"All we can do now is look at where we’re at as a football club and decide where we want to go."
Brendan Rodgers reflected on his team's shocking exit from the Champions League after losing on penalties to Kairat Almaty in Kazakhstan on Tuesday. Just six months ago, Celtic nearly defeated Bayern Munich, but now they find themselves at a critical juncture, having missed out on Champions League qualification.
What are Celtic missing out on?
Beyond the significant financial rewards associated with qualifying for Europe’s elite competition, Celtic faced much more at stake in Kazakhstan. The club had established itself as a regular participant in the Champions League over the past three seasons, coming agonizingly close to reaching the knockout stage last season.
"The Champions League is a wonderful competition," said a disappointed Rodgers after his team failed to qualify for a fourth consecutive year. "But as we always do, we will have to stick together as a squad. It’s a tough one to take, but we didn’t do enough over the two legs. From the first day back, they’ve been brilliant, and domestically we’ve started well, but at this level, even against teams that don’t quite have the quality, you still need that little bit of extra finesse and precision."
Qualification for the Champions League typically brings around €18 million (£15.5 million) for each participating club, along with additional revenue from ticket sales, merchandise, sponsorships, and corporate investments. In contrast, dropping into the Europa League reduces this amount to just over €4 million (£3.46 million), with a match win valued at €450,000 (£388,000) instead of €2 million (£1.73 million).
Neither team managed to score as the match headed into a penalty shootout, and Celtic captain Callum McGregor candidly admitted that they did not deserve to advance. "We didn’t deserve to qualify," he stated after the defeat, which was decided by penalties following a goalless draw in both legs. "We have to regroup; we know we have a big game on Sunday against Rangers. It’s a real sore one for the club in terms of finances and everything else. We still need help; we still need bodies in the door, and hopefully, the club can address that."
What happened on the night?
Kairat Almaty proved difficult to break down, offering little in attack while successfully holding Celtic for 210 minutes before the penalty shootout. Celtic's front three of James Forrest, Yang, and Daizen Maeda struggled to create scoring opportunities, and despite the introduction of summer signings Adam Idah and Arne Engels, the team failed to find the net.
Former Celtic winger Aiden McGeady expressed his disappointment, telling BBC Radio Scotland, "I wouldn’t say I’m angry; I’m just very disappointed with what I’ve seen over the two legs. The performances were not good enough. Ultimately, it goes back down to forward planning. Fail to prepare, prepare to fail. It’s been a very difficult watch, and the quality was lacking. If Celtic had gotten through, they would have been very lucky. It’s a terrible way to exit the Champions League, but it’s a stark reminder."
Match momentum analysis indicates that despite Celtic dominating possession with 67%, they were never a significant threat in attack. Kairat, ranked 311th in UEFA's coefficient standings, managed to contain the 56th ranked Scottish champions throughout the match. Celtic recorded more passes in the opponent's half and had a higher number of shots on target, yet only achieved an expected goals tally of 0.5 until Kairat visibly tired in extra time. A crucial opportunity for Maeda to clinch the tie in the 85th minute went begging as he shot over the bar, exemplifying the team’s struggles in front of goal.
Former Celtic midfielder John Collins added on BBC Radio Scotland, "There was a lack of creativity in the final third; set plays were poor, and there wasn't enough movement. Everybody in the whole country is shocked that Celtic haven’t strengthened their attacking options. The biggest disappointment is being knocked out by a very average team. Kairat are not a Champions League team."
What does this mean now for Celtic?
Celtic now has less than a week to address the concerns of their frustrated supporters and enhance their squad. Their next match is the first Old Firm derby of the season on Sunday. Although they have started the season stronger than Rangers, they must avoid letting momentum swing against them to prevent discontent among fans.
While a Europa League campaign may ultimately yield more benefits than a Champions League run, this perspective will take time to settle, if it materializes at all. When asked whether their Europa League status would influence transfer decisions before the window closes, Rodgers replied, "I haven’t a clue. I really don’t know."