Heart of Midlothian's Strong Start in Scottish Premiership
“With a bit of luck, they can finish second this season.”
Heart of Midlothian supporters may view this statement as underestimating their potential, especially after Saturday's impressive 3-0 victory against Kilmarnock, which has placed Derek McInnes' team five points ahead of Celtic at the top of the Scottish Premiership.
While McInnes emphasized that “no one is getting carried away” with thoughts of a title challenge, former head coach Steven Naismith suggested that Hearts could potentially disrupt the dominance of the Old Firm.
Celtic are expected to close the gap when they face struggling Dundee on Sunday, but Hearts' victory at Rugby Park ensures they will enter their next match against the reigning champions with at least a two-point advantage.
Additionally, with managerless Rangers held to a draw by Dundee United, Hearts find themselves 13 points clear of the team that was anticipated to be Celtic’s main competition.
So, what has contributed to Hearts' impressive start?
Impressive Stats at the Top of the Premiership
Backed by investment from Tony Bloom and the football analytics division of Brighton & Hove Albion, McInnes has successfully restructured the squad he inherited from Neil Critchley, yielding remarkable results.
Hearts have won 11 of their 13 matches across all competitions this season, with their only loss occurring in a penalty shoot-out against St Mirren in the Premier Sports Cup.
With 19 goals scored in eight league matches, Hearts lead the league in scoring, outpacing the next closest team, Dundee United, by five goals.
They also boast the highest number of goal attempts, the most shots on target, and the best conversion rate, with only Celtic slightly ahead in expected goals.
Hearts have scored in every league match this season, a feat unmatched by any other team in the Premiership.
Claudio Braga, who netted a double against Kilmarnock, is tied for the league's top scorer with five goals, alongside United's Ivan Dolcek. Additionally, winger Alexandros Kyziridis leads the league with four assists since joining from Slovak club Zemplin Michalovce.
Defensively, only bottom-placed Livingston have won more duels, while Hearts are tied with Celtic for the most clean sheets, having recorded five, albeit after one additional match played. Their current streak of four consecutive games, totaling 471 minutes, without conceding is their longest since December-January of 2018.
Both Braga and midfielder Cammy Devlin rank among the top four in winning duels, while goalkeeper Alexander Schwolow has yet to allow a goal since his arrival.
McInnes Promises Room for Improvement
It’s no surprise that Hearts fans, nearly 4,000 strong at the away match in Ayrshire, displayed a banner reading, “In Dell we trust.”
While McInnes expressed his satisfaction with the win at “a notoriously hard venue,” he cautioned viewers not to assume the match was straightforward merely because of the scoreline. “Kilmarnock started the first 15-20 minutes as the better side,” he noted to BBC Scotland.
He acknowledged that his team had made mistakes, giving away too many fouls and failing to manage the initial pass effectively, which invited pressure from Kilmarnock.
However, he praised his team’s performance following Craig Halkett's opening goal, highlighting the effective partnership between Braga and fellow striker Lawrence Shankland. “They linked the play brilliantly,” he remarked, adding that he encouraged his players to remain calm after halftime.
“Lawrence has seven goals in all competitions as well, so we are scoring plenty,” McInnes stated. “With our set plays, we should aim to score even more goals. I enjoy watching the team, but there is still much room for improvement.”
McInnes has no plans to attend the Celtic match in person, stating, “We can be somewhat satisfied with our work. The game against Celtic will take care of itself in terms of motivation and atmosphere.” He acknowledged that Celtic will be their toughest test and emphasized the need for readiness.
“In Coming Seasons, a Three-Horse Race”
Naismith believes Hearts are growing stronger with each passing week. “Earlier in the season, their results were not necessarily a reflection of strong performances,” he noted. “However, recent matches show their performances are becoming more complete.”
He added that Hearts’ attacking players are making better decisions, which contributed to their goals against Kilmarnock. “This was not a 3-0 game based on performances; it was individual mistakes that allowed Hearts to capitalize,” Naismith explained.
Naismith also emphasized the depth of McInnes’ squad, suggesting that the initial concerns about having too many players have proven unfounded. “The substitutes are eager to make an impact, and those on the pitch are showing determination to stay in the team. They now have match-winners in their ranks.”
Regarding the possibility of Hearts finishing second this season, Naismith remarked, “I wouldn’t say they are favorites, but with a bit of luck, they could secure that position. In future seasons, I foresee a three-horse race.”
As Hearts continue to build momentum, Naismith believes they will progressively distance themselves from the competition. “The signings they’re making are low-risk with strong data backing, and they have a fan base that can grow with the club. It’s an exciting time for Hearts.”
On the prospect of a title challenge this season, Naismith added, “If they remain competitive through January, they may have opportunities for reinforcements. By March, if they are still in contention, the pressure will shift from Hearts to the Old Firm, who are expected to finish at the top.”