Italy Faces World Cup Qualification Challenges

Italy Faces World Cup Qualification Challenges

Italy Faces World Cup Qualification Challenges

Italy, a four-time World Cup champion, is facing the possibility of missing the finals for the third consecutive time.

After failing to qualify for the 2018 World Cup in Russia and the 2022 tournament in Qatar, Italy currently sits second in their qualifying group, three points behind leaders Norway. The Azzurri are set to face Norway in Milan this Sunday, a match that will be crucial for their chances of qualification.

To secure automatic qualification, Italy must win by a remarkable nine-goal margin, as Norway has a significantly better goal difference.

As a result, it is likely that Italy will have to enter the play-offs, a stage that has brought them heartbreak in recent years. They missed the 2018 World Cup after losing 1-0 on aggregate to Sweden, and four years later, they suffered a humiliating defeat at home against North Macedonia, which ended their hopes of qualifying for the 2022 tournament.

The upcoming 2026 World Cup, which will take place in Canada, Mexico, and the United States next June and July, will feature an expanded format with 48 participating nations.

Italian football journalist James Horncastle remarked on the Euro Leagues podcast, "Even with an expanded World Cup, for Italy to miss out would be catastrophic. It was termed apocalyptic the first time they missed out in 2017; I can only imagine what stage of the apocalypse we are in now."

Nightmare Start Puts Italy Under Pressure

Italy won the European Championship in 2021 but has not appeared in a World Cup finals since 2014, where they failed to advance beyond the group stage after a victory over England and losses to Costa Rica and Uruguay.

Their qualifying campaign for the 2026 World Cup could not have started worse, with a disappointing 3-0 defeat to Norway in their opener, during which Manchester City’s Erling Haaland scored one of the goals. Following this loss, manager Luciano Spalletti publicly announced his own departure, although he remained in charge for the subsequent 2-0 victory over Moldova.

Since then, Italy has been playing catch-up, while Norway has maintained a perfect record in their first seven qualifiers, scoring 33 goals, including 14 by Haaland.

In response to the team's struggles, the Italian Football Federation appointed Gennaro Gattuso, a former midfielder known for his tenacity, who played a key role in Italy's last World Cup victory in 2006 and helped AC Milan win the Champions League twice.

Despite a successful stint at Napoli, Gattuso's previous managerial roles have been tumultuous, including a brief and unproductive period at Fiorentina and short tenures at Valencia and Marseille. His most recent position was with Croatian club Hajduk Split, leading some to question the decision to appoint him as Italy's manager.

Italian journalist Mina Rzouki expressed concerns about Gattuso’s appointment, stating, "When I heard Gattuso was in line, it highlighted the significant decline of Italian football. The team that once boasted legends like Paolo Maldini and Francesco Totti has transformed into a shadow of its former self. Despite winning the Euros, the quality of coaching has noticeably diminished, with none of the great coaches stepping up to the challenge."

Horncastle added, "The players are under immense pressure after the loss to Norway in June, and the media narrative is that they must win every remaining match by large margins. Spalletti was a highly regarded coach, but for some reason, it didn’t work out. Gattuso is more famous for his press conferences than for his tactical acumen on the pitch."

Plenty of Goals but Improvement Needed

Despite the pressure, Italy has shown promise under Gattuso, scoring 18 goals in his first five matches as manager. They recorded a 5-0 victory over Estonia, followed by a thrilling 5-4 win against Israel, and secured 3-1 and 3-0 victories over Estonia and Israel, respectively.

Italy faced challenges in breaking down Moldova, but two late goals secured a 2-0 win, keeping their hopes of automatic qualification alive. Rzouki commented, "So far, so good. While Spalletti was considered a tactical genius, questions remained about his ability to motivate the players. Gattuso has brought passion and urgency, and the players are responding positively to his leadership."

If Italy finishes second in their group, they will have to navigate two single-leg play-offs to secure their spot at the World Cup, which they have won in 1934, 1938, 1982, and 2006.

Despite their five wins in five matches, Rzouki believes further improvement is essential for Italy to qualify and make a significant impact in North America. "They are eager to score, but the team lacks balance," she noted. "In their matches against Israel and Estonia, they played as if they were facing top teams like France and Spain. They should have easily defeated Estonia, and while Israel posed a challenge, they should have secured a more comfortable victory. Israel created numerous chances and counter-attacks that troubled Italy. The difference lies in having strikers who can score. Under Gattuso, scoring seems easier, but the team's tactical recklessness and naivety are concerning. They may resemble Barcelona in their approach, trying to outscore opponents, but without the finesse."

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