The Impact of Managerial Changes in Football
The 'new manager bounce' refers to the phenomenon where a team experiences an improvement in form and performance following the appointment of a new manager.
When a new coach steps in after a prolonged period of disappointing results, it is often observed that both team performance and results tend to improve.
With Manchester United, Chelsea, and Celtic recently parting ways with their managers, these clubs are optimistic that a change in leadership will lead to better results.
Data from the Premier League indicates that teams typically see an immediate uptick in performance after changing coaches. Out of the last 30 permanent managerial appointments, 18 teams improved their points tally in their first five league games compared to the previous five under their former manager.
Nine teams experienced a decline in performance during that five-game period, while three teams maintained the same points total as their predecessor.
Though statistics suggest that replacing a manager can provide a quick fix, former Premier League manager Roy Hodgson argues that success on the pitch is not solely dependent on the coach. He remarked, "It is a lottery whether the change is successful." In an interview with The Times in 2025, he noted that the return of injured players can significantly impact team performance, coinciding with a new manager's influence and tactics.
When Has the Bounce Worked and Failed?
Among the last 30 managerial hires, Graham Potter achieved the best results, securing 11 points in his first five games after taking over from Thomas Tuchel at Chelsea. However, his tenure at Chelsea lasted only six months and 22 Premier League matches, during which he accumulated just 17 points from his last 17 league outings.
David Moyes (Everton), Roy Hodgson (Crystal Palace), Unai Emery (Aston Villa), and Ralf Rangnick (Manchester United) each garnered 10 points in their initial five games. Under Rangnick, United achieved two points per game during his first five matches but ultimately fell short, finishing his tenure with only 27 points from his final 19 league games, missing out on Champions League qualification by 11 points.
Emery also claimed 10 points in his first five games after replacing Steven Gerrard at Aston Villa, leading the team to three consecutive European campaigns, with the possibility of a fourth this season.
Moyes, who took over from Sean Dyche at Everton a year ago, has successfully guided the club back to mid-table after five seasons of relegation struggles.
However, of the last seven permanent appointments in the Premier League, three managers failed to win any of their first five league matches. Ange Postecoglou managed just one draw during his brief 39-day stint at Nottingham Forest, while Rob Edwards (Wolves) and Ivan Juric (Southampton) lost all of their opening five games.
Despite the prevalent hire-and-fire culture in the Premier League, it may be surprising to note that the two longest-serving managers, Pep Guardiola and Mikel Arteta, currently occupy the top two spots in the league table.
Hodgson, who has managed Blackburn, Fulham, Liverpool, West Brom, Crystal Palace, and Watford, cautioned that the new manager bounce does not always lead to long-term success. He stated, "Football matches are won by players and not by managers. The success of a managerial change largely depends on the quality of the players and their ability to meet the expectations of the club's hierarchy. Unfortunately, for teams struggling at the bottom of the table, the desired effect often does not materialize in the long run."
This article is part of BBC Sport's Ask Me Anything series.
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